Nigeria’s present account surplus is projected to extend from 9.2% of GDP in 2024 to 9.4% by 2026, in response to the World Bank’s April 2025 Africa’s Pulse Report.
This anticipated enchancment is essentially pushed by the depreciation of the naira, resulting in decreased imports and better employee remittances.
In line with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the nation’s present and capital accounts posted a mixed surplus of $17.22 billion in 2024, up considerably from $2.59 billion in 2023.
The majority of the features got here from commerce, the place a rebound in exports and a contraction in imports boosted the nation’s commerce steadiness.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s financial outlook
The World Bank report additionally assesses Sub-Saharan Africa’s financial outlook, noting a slight enchancment in 2024 with the regional present account deficit declining from 3.4% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024.
Nevertheless, this development is predicted to reverse in 2025–2026, with the deficit widening to 2.9% of GDP on account of world commerce challenges and declining export revenues.
The report famous that internet oil-exporting nations strengthened their place in 2024, however are prone to face declines in 2025–2026 on account of falling power revenues.
Gabon is predicted to take care of a excessive surplus of 30.7% of GDP in 2024, benefiting from sturdy commodity exports.
Angola, nonetheless, will see its surplus drop considerably from 6.7% of GDP in 2024 to 2% in 2026, reflecting weaker export efficiency.
Divergent traits
In the meantime, metal-rich economies and international locations with out pure sources present diverging traits.
- In line with the report, Zambia is benefiting from rising copper exports, that are serving to cut back its present account deficit.
- South Africa’s deficit is forecast to widen, climbing from 0.6% of GDP in 2024 to 1.7% in 2026, pushed by sturdy import demand.
- The World Bank report says Botswana’s exterior outlook stays unsure, given its dependency on diamond market fluctuations.
Mauritania is projected to take care of a mean present account deficit of 5.9% of GDP from 2025 to 2027, largely on account of larger gasoline exports and declining import costs.
International locations with out main useful resource exports
For nations with out main useful resource exports, present account deficits stay important however barely enhancing as non-resource-rich international locations recorded a 4.3% deficit in 2024, anticipated to slender to 4% in 2026.
Kenya’s deficit is forecast to stabilize at 4% of GDP, helped by a gradual restoration in exports and overseas direct funding, notably beneath the African Continental Free Commerce Space (AfCFTA) framework.
The World Bank report added that Mozambique’s deficit is projected to stay at 12.1% of GDP from 2025 to 2027, as larger coal and gasoline exports offset a rise in import spending associated to megaprojects, together with the TotalEnergies LNG undertaking.
What you need to know
The CBN, earlier in April, famous that items commerce posted a surplus of $13.17 billion in 2024, aided by a 48.3% surge in gasoline exports and a 24.6% rise in non-oil exports.
- On the import aspect, petroleum imports fell 23.2%, whereas non-oil imports declined by 12.6%, each reflecting the mixed impact of FX liberalisation, decreased consumption of imported items, and efforts to enhance native manufacturing.
- Nigeria’s projected present account surplus development displays a key alternative for its financial system, reinforcing commerce competitiveness whereas offering fiscal room for funding enlargement. Nevertheless, macroeconomic dangers stay, notably in mild of world commerce uncertainties and ongoing forex fluctuations.
Be First to Comment