Analysts at Cordros Securities have revised their preliminary goal value for Lafarge shares for the full-year 2025, elevating it by 4.0% to N104.71 per share.
Following Lafarge’s stronger-than-expected Q1 2025 leads to quantity and total efficiency, the monetary companies agency has revised its earlier goal value of N100.68 per share.
In a just lately printed fairness analysis replace, Cordros highlighted Lafarge’s spectacular 80.3% income progress in Q1, together with a good price-to-volume combine, as key drivers behind the upward revision.
Inspired by the robust begin to the yr, the analysts have considerably upgraded their income projection for the total yr 2025, now estimating a 40.7% year-over-year improve, up from the sooner forecast of 21.7%.
The agency now anticipates Lafarge’s complete cement quantity to succeed in 6.41 million tons, alongside a 23% upward revision in cement costs, that are anticipated to common N153,000 per ton, in comparison with the beforehand forecast N136,000 per ton.
Explaining the rise in projected quantity, the analysts famous:
“The amount improve is pushed by expectations of stronger private and non-private sector demand, improved manufacturing effectivity, and the market’s constructive reception of the corporate’s new revolutionary merchandise.”
Cordros additionally revised its earnings projection upward, forecasting a 110.0% year-over-year progress in earnings per share (EPS), to N13.06.
This represents a major reset from the sooner projection of N10.44, or 67.9% progress, and is attributed to Lafarge’s success in decreasing finance prices by 96.9% through the first quarter.
What to know:
The brand new goal value of N104.71 is predicated on an 80/20 mix of Discounted Money Circulation (DCF) and sector-relative valuation strategies.
- The DCF mannequin used estimates for Free Money Circulation to the Agency (FCFF) and Free Money Circulation to Fairness (FCFE) of N93.59 and N87.05, respectively.
- Sector-relative valuation utilized Bloomberg’s peer medians of 6.8x (EV/EBITDA) and 12.5x (P/E), leading to honest worth estimates of N161.67 and N163.23.
Assumptions included a 30% company tax charge and a 23.9% Weighted Common Price of Capital.
- As of the market shut on Might 9, 2025, the corporate’s shares have been priced at N81.95.
Lafarge’s Q1 efficiency abstract
Lafarge Africa Plc printed its monetary assertion for the quarter ended thirty first March 2025, reporting a pre-tax revenue of N73.1 billion.
This displays a considerable improve of 739.47% in comparison with the N8.7 billion pre-tax revenue reported in Q1 2024, fueled by a major rise in income.
The corporate’s Q1 2025 income reached N248.3 billion, marking an 80.26% improve from the N137.7 billion recorded in the identical quarter the earlier yr.
- Of the full, cement gross sales made up the most important share, contributing N242.6 billion.
- Aggregates and concrete added N5.4 billion, whereas ‘different merchandise’ accounted for N281 million.
Though working prices loomed, the corporate’s income from core operations reached N71.6 billion, reflecting a formidable improve of 136.97% from the earlier yr’s determine of N30.2 billion.
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